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| *Disregard the caption on the bottom right* |
- Raise the debt ceiling even higher? No, I don't think we should hurt future generations by taking this short-term option.
- Stop trade with China? Probably not a good option. We depend too much on products made from China and blocking trade (enacting quotas/tariffs) will probably hurt us more than help us.
- Force China to increase the value of its currency (which will decrease net exports and net capital outflow)? Hmm...
Dr. Poston gave us details about China's demographic structure. The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is hovering around 120, meaning 120 boys are being born per 100 girls. In the United States, this ratio is 105 (which is optimal because research shows that women live longer than men). In just a decade or so, there will be 55+ million Chinese men unable to find wives to marry.
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| What a lucky woman. She gets to pick who she wants to marry. |
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| Who doesn't love a good bachelor party? |
- China's population is aging + there are not enough babies being born = the old age dependency ratio will increase (similar to Japan and countries in Europe like Germany).
- Increased internal migration from rural areas to urban areas.
And then I found this...
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"Dudley Poston, a Professor of Sociology at Texas A&M University, estimates that if China's sex ratio hold steady there will be a projected 55 million extra males by 2020. Unfortunately, even if it improved to almost natural levels by 2020 there will still be an excess of 51 million males."
Source: http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/category/topics/gender-imbalance-china
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I'm planning on doing a reciprocal exchange abroad next semester in Beijing. I was talking to someone from China for some advice. He said "hey, maybe you'll find a girlfriend in Beijing". I thought that was kind of funny.
But for any single ladies out there, you're probably more likely to get your "MRS degree" in China than anywhere else.
Any thoughts on the seminar?
I think this is interesting, because it seems like China is so focused on its economy that it has disregarded other social issues. The sex ratio problem is something that can hurt China in the near future. While the United States exports education, China will continue to export skilled workers wanting to start a family. I also had a question for Dr. Gaspar. He mentioned how China had the number 1 economy in the world a couple of centuries ago. I wonder what caused its decline and do we see similar factors reappearing in the future for China.
ReplyDeleteFrom what i still remember from China history class in NUS, China- Qing Dynasty at the time (end of 1700's to beginning of 1900's)- was still a very strong global power, until the British introduced opium to China ,leading to the Opium wars or Anglo-Chinese wars because China govt wanted to limit trading to only one port to prevent opium traders (rumors has it that the Empress Dowager Cixi at the time was also addicted to opium, opium spread fast in communities, led to many families ruins).
DeleteThe British disagreed because it violated freedom of trade. So they resolved by wars which the British won due to their advance navy and war techs i.e. guns. (British troops are expeditionary soldier from India,a British colony, at the time). China gave up some territories to British (It's funny how China exported gun powder to the British while the British exported opium to China)-- following U.S., French, Japan all wanted a piece of China. (some streets in Shanghai was co-regulated by these 4 powers)
a combination of bad internal management( corrupt officials, Express Dowager Cixi ceased power from the king) and external rising powers
more info :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars
One of the biggest things that stood out to me from Thursday's lecture was Dr. Poston's remarks about the potential outbreak of HIV/AIDS on an epidemic scale. From a human rights perspective, I wonder how other developed countries will attack this problem and spread the word about it. No doubt that if the number of cases of HIV/AIDS in China is equivalent to that of all of Africa, every nation will face potential national health security issues. I worry that the rest of the world (America, namely) will be so blindsided by China's economic power that they will either choose to ignore the health and security of Chinese human beings, or worse, choose to stand by idly because our nation will prosper in very selfish ways from a decline in moral of China. We are so interconnected that America cannot allow this to happen.
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ReplyDeleteWhat I didn’t understand about the unbalanced sex-ratio was China’s plan (if any, I couldn’t find one) for the future. For a country that has been around for thousands of years, they must understand the importance of growth and the continuation of Chinese population. This if they plan on keeping China exist of Chinese people in the future, after all! I wonder since a lot of Chinese businessmen tend to travel to different countries, will these eligible and wealthy bachelors bring home foreigners for brides? Could this serve as a potential problem to the Chinese tradition of marrying within your race? One of my friend’s parents is from China and we joke about give her a hard time about having to marry a Chinese boy because her parents wouldn’t support her marrying anyone else. After hearing about the vast quantity of Chinese men available, I don’t think she will have a problem. Those Chinese guys, on the other hand, are going to have competition up to their ears.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Elaine’s comment about the HIV/AIDS epidemic, I was thinking along the same lines about the possibility of a worldwide contagion and the effect this could have on everyone. Like Poston mentioned, China has had its ups and downs, but something as devastating as AIDS could certainly have everlasting negative effects on the Chinese population. However, where does it become such a factor that America needs to step in to do something about it? Right now, it’s certainly China’s problem, but one that they seem not to be addressing. I’m curious to know what America’s role should/would be if this were to become a widespread crisis. Thoughts?
Very enlightening ideas everyone! I was also having the same last question as Alayne. What is America's role? Or rather, is there anything at all that America can do to, first, stay the world leading power, and second, to stop any kind of epidemic from spreading in the world? Both speakers raised so many questions and I'm trying to look for answers.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, America has it's own internal issues that need to be taken care of. In my opinion in a very general view, whichever country gets it acts together faster will be leading the world economy in the near future.
Any comments?
Alayne, I thought the same thing about business men bringing home foriegn brides, but one of the presenters made a great point: In the competition for brides it will be the laborers, the poor, and the migrant workers that are left alone. The rich and the business class will be more competitive and for the most part able to find brides domestically. The poor and laborers won't have such opportunities.
ReplyDeleteA question I have regarding the large population of eligible bachelors is, will the long term family structure in China change in the next few years? We have seen an increase in "serial marriages" in the United States and could this be another long term consequence of unbalanced gender ratios for Asia? I think it is something to consider simply because it would have an impact on the Chinese economy with more single families and also on the emotional stability of children being raised in a new type of culture.
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